will nyc sustain this population growth, if not then???

The desire to peer into the future is a human trait as old as the biblical prophets and the oracle at Delphi. Such is the case today as the realization becomes every day more clear that the advanced economices of the world are entering a new global, information-based, post-industrial stage of development that promises new forms of urban civilization and human community. Retaining Manhattan as the epicenter of the world is the work of many minds. We all know about how Manhattan was evolved, its social structures, urban culture, how the city is organized spatially, what economic functions it perform, how it is governed, how it is planned and here I would like to discuss its possible future.

I would like to perceive Manhattan’s future in urban and sustainability context as the connection between the built environment of the city and the natural environment is very important. Since the population soars and urbanization continues, the imperative to design Manhattan as a sustainable city will become more important. One possible urban future is post-urbanism. Melvin Webber, author of “The Post-City Age argues that certain technological developments will result in an end to traditional cities and the emergence of a post-urban period of human development. The information revolution sweeping the world today has profound implications for the future of cities.  Joel Kotkin argues that modern telecommunications will indeed contribute to decentralization and the “destruction of the space”. These are the dark clouds in his view of the urban future.

Thus putting forward Manhattan that was 400 years ago, at present and could/would be if the sea level rises and in the later part of blog discuss the problems the city is facing and would face in future and to some extend try to see the framed city and visualize the future of the city Manhattan in urban population and sustainability context.

Before we discuss the future i would put forward the past and present situations of NYC.

1. Composite image of Manhattan that shows the left side of the island as it was 400 years ago and the right side as it looks today.

Reference from: http://www.doobybrain.com/tag/future/

2. Mannahatta Project’s view of Mannahatta ca. 1609 overlaid with today’s footprint of Manhattan.

3. Manhattan after sea level will rise

Reference from:

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://farm1.static.flickr.com/104/368578581_0c1e5531b3.jpg&imgrefurl=http://scienceblogs.com/grrlscientist/2007/01/manhattan_after_sea_levels_ris.php&usg=__I8S9gxC3mqw7ztNn4IDRIt0-YI0=&h=310&w=500&sz=79&hl=en&start=81&um=1&tbnid=OJ3zX8oqHK4cRM:&tbnh=81&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dfuture%2Bof%2B%2Bmanhattan%26ndsp%3D21%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26start%3D63%26um%3D1

Growth of Human population and its effects:

As per my perception population growth would be the root cause of all the problems New York City would/could face in the future. Its effects would be Land Scarcity, Traffic problems (Vehicular/ Human), Pollution, Sustainability, Waste and it goes on……

The world’s urban population was only 750 million in 1960, grew to 3 billion by 2002 and is expected to surpass 5 billion in 2030.

• According to the U.S. Census, Manhattan’s residential population is actually at about 1.7 million.

Whereas:

Tourism in New York City includes nearly 47 million foreign and American tourists each year.

International and domestic Visitor to New York City in 2008:

Domestic visitors in 2008: 37.1 million

International visitors in 2008: 9.5 million

Hard to believe but the ratio is 1:50 approx. (Manhattan’s Residential population: Tourist in Manhattan)

will it be able to sustain this no in future???

Image focusing on number of tourist in Times Square on New Year Eve….will New York be able to sustain the existing no of tourist in coming New year eves???

Manhattan population by day vs Manhattan population by Night.

Reference from: http://gizmodo.com/5336615/manhattans-population-by-day-vs-manhattans-population-by-night

40% of the NYC population is the immigrants and they are the lifeblood of NYC. 1 million immigarnts have come since 1990.  Will nyc be able to sustain this %age. I feel that each zone/district strated to have its own identity such as china town , little italy etc…is that good??? If so what would be global identity of nycity in future???

The subway statistics:

From 8:00 am to 8:59 am on an average fall day in 2007 the NYC Subway carried 388,802 passengers into the CBD on 370 trains over 22 tracks. In other words, a train carrying 1,050 people crossed into the CBD every 6 seconds.

Reference from: http://www.mta.info/nyct/facts/ridership/index.htm#chart_s

New York City has an average density of  25,000 persons per square mile. It seems plain that the only way to stop urban crowding and to solve most of the urban problems besetting both the developed and the underdeveloped nations is to reduce the overall rate of population growth. Kingsley Davis says that there will be an end to urbanization-but not necessarily to absolute population growth, the physical size of cities or the absolute number of people cities contain. Actually the hardest problem is not that of determining the “floor” of the urban category but of ascertaining the boundary of places that are clearly urban by any definition. The urbanization of human population is continuing as per Kingsley Davis. 21^st century will surely see more congestion, sprawl, pollution, exhaustion of natural resources, extinction of species and proliferation of megacities and vast urban conurbations, even if governments intervene to plan and regulate city development far more than they ever done in the past.

As long as the human population expands, Manhattan city will expand too, regardless of whether urbanization increases or declines. But my major concern is where is it going to expand as its an island??? If not horizontality than vertically??? or all island boroughs of New York city going to merging into 1 island???

The New York survey asked suburban respondents if they favored encouraging or slowing growth.  The model included variables indicating the location of the respondent, whether they work in New York City, and how often they visit the city for non-work reasons.

Several of the variables in the model were found to be statistically significant:

• African-American respondents had a lower probability of supporting slow-growth measures, while being Latino had no effect on support for slowing growth.
• Older respondents were more likely to support slowing growth, “perhaps because older respondents value different community characteristics or have different priorities than younger residents.”
• Respondents living in areas that they feel are becoming more like a big city were more likely to support slowing growth, suggesting that a desire to escape encroaching urban ills is at the base of suburban support for slowing growth.”
• Exurban respondents and suburbanites living in Connecticut were less likely to support slowing growth, while suburban respondents in New Jersey were more likely to support slowing growth.
• Working in New York did not effect attitudes on slowing growth, but respondents who visited the city more often for non-work reasons were less likely to support slowing growth.

Reference From: http://www.urbanfutures.org/abstract.cfm?id=56

Sustainability:

If we talk in present context, Empire State Building, the icon of NYC is supporting the sustainability concept, thus I feel its important for us to look forward what this scenario will be in future. Its important to prevent the island from Global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. Energy and water conservation in another criteria and all this will be effected by the population growth rate. I know its would be difficult and expensive but its better than the future effects on whole planet.

The term “sustainable” is now widely used to describe a world in which both human and natural  systems can continue to exist long into the future. Urban sustainability-the ability of cities to grow and develop without overwhelming the environmental carrying capacity of the earth-have become an important feature of contemporary thinking about the future of the cities. Sustainable Urban development is defined as a development that improves the long-term social and ecological health of the cities and towns.

The transition towards more sustainable cities will not happen overnight. But through a growing ecological and social consciousness, the development of innovative models and examples, and better understandings of the policies, programs and design appropriate to urban sustainability, new, more sustainable forms of urban development can come about.

Below are couple of examples relating to the future Architecture in context to sustainability.

Reference from: http://images.google.com/imghp?hl=en&tab=wi&q=sustainable%20design%20proposal%20for%20manhattan%20future

One of the major Environmental issues in New York City is waste and that too will be effected by the population growth. New York City generates 23,600 metric tons of waste every day. The problem is in its disposal. Environmental problems have made the city reconsider its waste disposal system which consisted of 8 incinerators to burn waste and 11 landfill sites in which to dump them. Now most of the disposal takes place in a few major dump sites, including the massive (1,214 hectares) Fresh Kills Landfill on Staten Island. The question remains, where will the waste go after that site is full and closed?

Reference from:http://www.un.org/cyberschoolbus/habitat/profiles/newyork.asp

Hard to believe but below are few astonishing examples of the different perception as future of Manhattan’s urban development:

• Spiraling Skyscraper farms for a future Manhattan

Reference from: http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.inhabitat.com/wp-content/uploads/evolodysto-ed01.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.inhabitat.com/2008/03/26/tomorrows-skyscrapers-today-daekwon-parks-symbiotic-superstructure/&usg=__9iAmAfhI6EUojAhMJOJabBtq0n4=&h=414&w=537&sz=56&hl=en&start=4&um=1&tbnid=MhIchRMxnq-iCM:&tbnh=102&tbnw=132&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dfuture%2Bof%2B%2Bmanhattan%26hl%3Den%26um%3D1

• Dragonfly Vertical farm for a future New York

Reference from:

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.inhabitat.com/wp-content/uploads/dragonfly-building.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.inhabitat.com/2009/05/18/dragonfly-urban-agriculture-concept-for-ny/&usg=__0bKCcyXFqYdNYAcbS99q_PPI2Sw=&h=425&w=537&sz=60&hl=en&start=3&tbnid=mTgksLElt-O6TM:&tbnh=104&tbnw=132&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dfuture%2Burban%2Bgrowth%2Bof%2Bmanhattan%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den

• Future of Green roof technology in New York City.

Reference from: http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.epscommercial.com/Images/urban-green-roof_gardens.jpg&imgrefurl=http://swimmablenyc.info/%3Fp%3D51&usg=__aGMWhnOEyA4KjtxbIgjVNgeFuEE=&h=263&w=350&sz=15&hl=en&start=13&um=1&tbnid=_0wtQ_JyGfw4gM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=120&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dfuture%2Bof%2Bnyc%26hl%3Den%26um%3D1

New York’s Central Park could be bulldozed to make way for new Manhattan Airport

Reference from: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-1201334/Plans-revealed-bulldoze-Central-Park-make-way-airport-New-Yorks-Manhattan-Island.html

But what is this??? It is really astonishing for me and suppose would be for you guys too??? But why Central Park??? It’s the wonderful urban space carved out of the rigid grid planning of Manhattan city.

I would say if the above would be true than there is no doubt that this would happen in future. Refer the image below.

New York City in 2106 under catastrophic flooding conditions due to melting of ice sheets.

Referencefrom:http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.elementlist.com/images/nyc2106.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.elementlist.com/element/blog/2007/01/science_architecture_manhattan.html&usg=__8he01-yu6RgQg85r7BLlVerkibk=&h=297&w=300&sz=29&hl=en&start=18&um=1&tbnid=MdmmtZG4RS9C-M:&tbnh=115&tbnw=116&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dfuture%2Bof%2Bnyc%26hl%3Den%26um%3D1

In the end a consideration of the many possibilities of the urban future leaves more questions than answers. Thus future is future and nothing can be said about it. Its perception of the individual and the above is mine-probable, possible and desirable urban future.

Courtesy to The city Reader Fourth Edtion edited by Richard T. LeGates and Frederic Stout

As i have referred it to put forward my ideas in context to effects on Manhattan’s Urbanization due to human population.

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