Densification in New York and its impacts
In the future New York will become exceedingly dense as more people continue to migrate near the city. This population increase will result in further building development within New York. As population density increases drastic changes will occur in order to accommodate the needs of a larger population. These changes will be apparent on multiple levels including transportation, sustainability, and regionalism.
The need for space will drastically increase the size of the built environment. In Manhattan this will result in a higher proportion of high-rise to mid-rise buildings, low-rise buildings or townhouses will become a rarity. Manhattan will have taller buildings in all areas of the island creating a skyline across the island that is similar to the skyline of today in Midtown. The outer borough’s will begin to build in a vertical manner reminiscent of Manhattan after all ground space has been consumed. The Metropolitan area of New York will expand outward as more people desire to be closer to the city.
Two basic types of communities will continue to be present in the future. The central area of the city with faster commutes and a smaller area of land for population will continue to be composed of a mixed-use community using mass transit. The communities near the outer edges with more space will continue to be composed of segregated land uses. These outer communities will become more ordered with the addition of a centrally located transit system. Such a system (T.O.D) has been proposed by Peter Calthorpe among others as an alternative to sprawl. In the future some aspects of T.O.D have been installed including the centrally located transit corridor which provides residents with a transportation system to take them to the central business district (C.B.D). However, the automobile still facilitates movement within these communities.
Due to a variety of factors Manhattan will remain a unique center of the New York Metropolitan Area. As Saskia Sassen points out in “The Impact of New Technologies and Globalization on Cities” many businesses opt to locate within or near the city in order to be near service industries residing in the city which are relevant to all forms of business such as accounting services, legal services, etc. Multi-national firms tend to be found within the main district of the city while businesses operating at a regional level tend to stay within proximity to the city and it’s services while also cutting expenses on rent. Due to Manhattan’s land limitations in the future the island will increasingly become home to large multi-national businesses as well as the afore mentioned service industries which they rely upon. Small businesses will exist largely in order to serve these predominant business types. The proportion of Small businesses, civic, and residential buildings will decrease making Manhattan mainly an area dedicated to business and the 9-5 work week. Though largely a work environment which vacates the island after the workday similar to the financial district of today. Accordingly there will be a few citizens who linger or live on the island after the workday has come to an end much like those who live near the financial district today.
Neighborhoods and districts of various character will continue to be seen in order to represent the values of the population. These areas will become more numerous and diverse as the population increases. Some of these areas will cater to different types of user groups. The various districts will be more ephemeral in nature as users will not often reside in theses areas and may be composed of tourists, commuters, or shoppers. Neighborhoods will continue to be a reflection of the culture and values of the residents who reside in the respective community.
The need for space will effectively eliminate the vacant and underutilized areas within the city, urban infill will no longer be a relevant concept in New York. As there will no longer be any vacant land to rely on each lot will be valued as an important piece of the city as a whole. This will improve the maintenance of each individual lot as well as the shared resources between these lots, thereby improving the aesthetic of the city. This concern will pressure government and private developers to take immediate action on addressing and coming to conclusion on local community needs as well as the immediate implementation of these needs. Projects like the World Trade Center rebuilding or Greenpoint waterfront redevelopment projects will not reach a point of standstill over economic or political factors. This will be due the population’s demand for resolution of these projects in a timely manner so their community aims are resolved, and also to help alleviate congestion within the city.
Open Space will be a major concern of everyone living in New York. Radical new innovations will continue to be demanded in order to provide open space without compromising the build-able area of the city needed for habitation. One solution which will become implemented will contain large urban plazas in the sky created by subtracting mass from high-rise buildings. These plazas can be reached by public elevator or the skyways which link buildings. Another dominant trend will be the creation of staggering the lower floors of buildings which will create multiple tiers of open space on these levels which also contain habitable space below.
A marked increase in environmental planning will contribute largely to the physical appearance of New York in the future. The majority of open space including the previously mentioned plazas connected by skyways as well as the staggered open spaces on the lower levels of buildings will be planted. These spaces will be planted in order to respond to environmental impacts caused by the urban population and will help to improve air quality. Many of these urban plazas will also be composed of green roofs and green walls which will help improve the energy efficiency of their respective buildings, a trend which has already begun. The areas of these open spaces as well as sidewalks and other surfaces which are not planted will become composed of pervious surfaces in order to provide absorption of rainwater and help alleviate the strain on the wastewater system.
The importance of sustainability will lead to the mass implementation of many new and existing technologies of sustainability. Photovoltaic panels will become a dominant visual element in the environment with new uses and forms. Most new building projects will be constructed using renewable or recycled products. Wind turbines will be used on a large and small scale throughout the city. On a micro scale sustainable measures will become commonplace as sustainable products become more affordable and efficient. Some of the these technologies include the installation of grey water systems throughout buildings with low flow fixtures in order to conserve water and energy.
The physical structure of New York’s transportation network will be radically changed in order to accommodate the extreme population which will inhabit the city. Transportation will be divided into layers in order to facilitate the movement of such a large population. Skyways will become more commonplace in order to relieve sidewalks of congestion and enable their effective management. There will be several layers of traffic and mass transportation beyond that which currently exists. This will serve to raise the current street level and have multiple levels for transportation. The transportation network will also have different sectors devoted to local or express transportation. The transportation infrastructure, Including roads, subways, and pedestrian traffic paths, will also expand throughout the city. A notable change from the present conditions will be the mass buildup of new connected subway lines which will serve the New Jersey communities. Transportation will also be more environmentally friendly and will offer intelligent solutions to transportation problems. One such solution would be using smaller cars to enable greater numbers of travelers to use the roads. Shared transportation will also exist which will serve to decrease the number of automobiles on the road and numbers manufactured.
This growth in population and structure will increase the complexity of the city, thereby making it harder to have a clear perception or “Image of the city”.
The size of everything including people, transit, etc. will initially confound such a perception of the city. An ever decreasing number of people will be able to comprehend the city instantaneously due to its overwhelming scale and complexity. Many of the people who do will be those in fields with a significant relation to urban issues. This will create more groups, with larger amounts of people, who are involved in urban issues and studies.
This envisioned future is the result of many current societal trends which have gained momentum and increased circulation to include the public at large. The most dominant issues are the interrelated issues of sustainability and environmental concern as well as the current increase towards urbanization. As population grows in the city the more important environmental concerns become, likewise those who are advocates of environmental sustainability will recognize the inherent environmental benefits that come with a society who dwells largely in an urban environment. As these trends become increasingly attractive they will become more intermingled developing a closer relationship with one another.
Referenced sources include:
The Image of the City, Kevin Lynch, 1960
The Impact of New Technologies and Globalization on Cities, Saskia Sassen
The Growth of the city, Ernest W. Burgess
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